China Caustic Soda Weekly Report: Prices Decline Amid Rising Inventory

The Chinese caustic soda market showed a clear downward trend this week, as weak downstream demand and rising inventories continued to put pressure on prices. Market sentiment remains cautious ahead of the upcoming holiday period.

📉 Prices Decline Across Key Regions

In Shandong, the benchmark 32% membrane caustic soda price averaged RMB 675/ton, down 6.51% week-on-week. Meanwhile, 50% liquid caustic soda prices dropped more sharply, falling nearly 10%.

Other key observations:

* Low-concentration caustic soda faced sluggish spot demand * Some producers reduced prices to accelerate shipments * High-concentration caustic soda export orders fell short of expectations

Overall, the market experienced broad-based price pressure, especially in northern China.

📦 Supply Adjusts Slightly, Inventory Continues to Rise

Operating rates at major chlor-alkali plants declined slightly:

* Average operating rate: 83.2% (-1.1%) * Weekly output: 83.7 million tons (-2.2%)

Despite reduced output, inventory levels increased significantly:

* Total inventory: 585,500 tons * Week-on-week: +4.71% * Year-on-year: +39.02%

This indicates that demand weakness remains the key issue in the current market.

🏭 Downstream Demand Remains Weak

Key downstream sectors showed mixed performance:

* Alumina: Demand softened, with buyers maintaining strong price pressure * Viscose fiber: Operating rates improved slightly, but demand recovery remains limited * Other sectors: Mainly purchasing based on immediate needs

Overall, downstream industries continue to adopt a cautious and wait-and-see approach.

💰 Profitability Declines

Falling caustic soda prices combined with weaker chlorine prices significantly reduced profitability:

* Average chlor-alkali profit: RMB 453/ton * Week-on-week change: -26.5%

Although raw material and energy costs declined, they were insufficient to offset the price drop.

🔮 Market Outlook

In the short term, the caustic soda market is expected to remain under pressure:

* Prices may continue to fluctuate downward * Producers will prioritize inventory reduction * Holiday logistics may impact shipments

However, supply-side adjustments may help stabilize the market later.

🌍 Supply & Export from China

Despite current market softness, China remains a major global supplier of caustic soda, offering competitive pricing opportunities for international buyers.

* Liquid caustic soda (32%, 50%) * Caustic soda flakes and pearls * Other industrial chemicals

We provide stable supply, competitive pricing, and reliable global logistics.

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* Product type (Liquid / Flakes / Pearls) * Concentration (32%, 50%, 99%) * Quantity * Destination port

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