China Urea Granular Market Update: Weak Spot Fundamentals Compete with Export Optimism

China's urea market remained in a narrow range during the week of July 24-30, 2026. The core conflict was clear: domestic spot fundamentals stayed weak, while export expectations provided stronger short-term sentiment support.

As of July 30, Shandong Linyi urea was quoted around RMB 1,750/mt, down RMB 10/mt from the previous week and equal to approximately USD 257/mt based on a working exchange rate of USD 1 = RMB 6.8. Shandong small and medium granular factory transactions were mostly around RMB 1,710-1,750/mt, approximately USD 251-257/mt, while large granular material was reported around RMB 1,800-1,830/mt, approximately USD 265-269/mt.

Key Takeaways for Overseas Buyers

For overseas fertilizer importers, the current China urea market is not a simple bullish story. Export expectations, India tender news and stronger international prices improved sentiment, but high domestic supply, weaker agricultural demand and rising inventories still limited price upside.

Buyers can review CHCA Chem's granular urea product page for 46% nitrogen specification, packing, COA and RFQ information. Buyers comparing smaller particle material can also check the prilled urea product page for related shipment and packing details.

Domestic Price and Supply Situation

Domestic urea prices moved slightly lower early in the week and then stabilized. The futures market also weakened, with the main 2609 contract closing at RMB 1,736/mt, approximately USD 255/mt, down 1.31% from the previous period.

Supply remained high. Weekly output reached about 1.5079 million mt, up 1.34% week on week, and the operating rate rose to 90.28%. With limited planned maintenance and several restart expectations, daily output is expected to remain high and fluctuate around 213,000-217,000 mt in the next period.

Demand and Inventory Pressure

Agricultural demand continued to weaken as seasonal consumption moved toward the end stage, while industrial demand recovered slowly. Compound fertilizer demand was below expectations, and melamine prices continued to face pressure, which limited downstream support for urea.

China's urea enterprise inventory rose to about 1.6186 million mt, up 86,900 mt or 5.67% week on week. Port inventory also increased to about 197,400 mt, up 40,500 mt, as export expectations encouraged more port collection activity. For buyers, these figures indicate that spot supply remains sufficient even though some factories have improved pending orders.

Export and International Market Signals

International urea prices strengthened during the week, supported by Middle East tension, higher energy prices and expectation of further tender demand. FOB China small granular urea was reported around USD 400/mt, up USD 20/mt, while FOB Middle East small granular urea reached around USD 410/mt, up USD 25/mt.

Brazil CFR prices also increased, with small granular urea around USD 435/mt and large granular urea around USD 455/mt. These international price gains improved export sentiment in China, but actual policy implementation, quota progress and tender results still need close monitoring.

Market Outlook

The next-week market is expected to remain in a tug-of-war. Export-related news, India tender progress and smoother port shipments may support factory price confidence in the first half of the week. However, if export benefits are delayed or fail to materialize, the market may again face pressure from high supply, weak domestic demand and elevated inventories.

Shandong Linyi is expected to move around RMB 1,730-1,760/mt, approximately USD 254-259/mt. The market may stay firm and range-bound early, with local downside risk later if no new export support appears.

Buyer Considerations

For a supplier China RFQ, overseas buyers should specify whether they need granular or prilled form, nitrogen content, biuret requirement, packing, quantity, destination port, shipment window, COA and any inspection or documentation requirements. Importers should also confirm whether the offer is linked to domestic factory stock, port stock or forward production allocation.

Because export policy and tender news can move sentiment quickly, buyers should reconfirm offers before booking containers or bulk shipment. A realistic quotation should include product grade, packing, loading port, shipment schedule and validity period.

FAQ

Why did China's urea market stay range-bound this week?

The market was balanced between weak domestic fundamentals and stronger export expectations. High supply and rising inventories pressured prices, while India tender news and stronger international prices provided support.

What was the Shandong Linyi urea price as of July 30?

Shandong Linyi was around RMB 1,750/mt, approximately USD 257/mt using USD 1 = RMB 6.8.

Are China's urea inventories still rising?

Yes. Enterprise inventory rose to about 1.6186 million mt, and port inventory also increased as market participants prepared for possible export opportunities.

What is the main risk for August buyers?

The key risk is that export expectations may not materialize quickly enough. If that happens, high domestic supply and weak demand may pressure prices again.

What should buyers include in a urea RFQ?

Buyers should include form, nitrogen content, biuret requirement, packing, quantity, destination port, shipment window, COA request and any inspection or document requirements.