China Caustic Soda Market Update: Higher Operating Rates and Inventory Pressure Liquid Alkali

China's caustic soda market showed a softer liquid-alkali balance during August 28-September 3, 2026. The operating rate and weekly output increased, producer inventory rose, and weak new export ordering limited support in some eastern markets. Solid caustic soda flakes remained broadly stable, creating a different procurement signal from the decline in 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda.

Key Takeaways for Buyers

Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda averaged RMB 639/mt during the week, up 0.47% week on week. However, the September 3 closing reference was RMB 625/mt, down RMB 10/mt from August 27, or approximately USD 92/mt using the fixed working exchange rate of USD 1 = RMB 6.8. The weekly average was approximately USD 94/mt.

Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda closed around RMB 980/mt, down RMB 70/mt or 6.67%, equivalent to approximately USD 144/mt. Northwest China 98% caustic soda flakes remained around RMB 2,210/mt, approximately USD 325/mt.

These are domestic China market references. Liquid prices are quoted on a wet-ton basis and cannot be treated as export quotations for solid flakes or pearls. Current FOB, CFR or CIF offers must be reconfirmed according to specification, packing, quantity, destination port, freight and shipment window.

Why Weekly Average and Closing Prices Moved Differently

The small increase in the weekly average for Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda reflected firmer levels earlier in the pricing period. By September 3, the daily closing reference had moved lower. Buyers should therefore check both the weekly trend and the most recent executable level rather than relying on one average.

For 50% liquid caustic soda, earlier supply reductions had encouraged price increases and some advance buying. Purchasing momentum later slowed, while concentrated-liquid output recovered. Lower-priced warehouse receipts and improved availability then pushed the closing price down more quickly.

Supply and Inventory Increased

The average operating rate for surveyed Chinese producers with at least 100,000 mt/year of capacity rose to 78.1%, up 1.0 percentage point. Weekly output increased to approximately 791,000 mt, up 11,000 mt from the previous period. Five units underwent maintenance while five restarted, alongside temporary operating adjustments caused by chlorine and power factors.

Apparent weekly demand was approximately 787,000 mt, leaving a theoretical surplus of about 4,000 mt. The following week's output was projected near 791,000 mt with an operating rate around 77.9%, subject to actual maintenance and restart timing.

Fixed liquid-caustic inventory among surveyed producers with at least 200,000 mt/year of capacity reached approximately 494,800 wet mt on September 3. Inventory increased 3.19% week on week and 27.6% year on year. This rise, combined with higher output, limited the market's ability to sustain price increases.

Demand and Regional Conditions

Alumina operating rates increased slightly to about 82.4%, but domestic fundamentals remained cautious and procurement was mainly stable rather than strongly expanding. Viscose staple fiber operating rates remained near 88.84%, with producers generally purchasing according to immediate needs.

East China liquid caustic soda was largely stable because local maintenance reduced supply, but non-alumina demand and new export orders were weak. South China also relied mainly on contractual and essential purchases. Regional differences remained important, so a national headline should not replace a location-specific quotation.

Implications for Solid Caustic Soda Buyers

Solid caustic soda did not follow the decline in high-concentration liquid material directly. Domestic flake markets were generally stable, and some suppliers expected limited improvement in new-order pricing. Overseas buyers should still distinguish market sentiment from a confirmed export offer.

Buyers comparing Caustic Soda Flakes and Caustic Soda Pearls should confirm NaOH purity, physical form, application and handling requirements. A supplier China, manufacturer, distributor or exporter comparison should also cover export packing, inner liner, pallet requirements, COA, MSDS and container loading arrangements.

Short-Term Outlook

Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda is expected to remain broadly stable, although further weakness in 50% material could affect sentiment. East China may trade within a narrow range because maintenance supports spot availability while weak non-alumina and export demand limit the upside.

Solid caustic soda flakes may remain stable to slightly firm for selected new orders, but current quotations must be reconfirmed. Key indicators are plant restarts, Shandong alumina purchasing volume, non-alumina operating rates, producer inventory and new export orders.

RFQ Checklist

Include the required form (flakes or pearls), NaOH specification, intended application, packing, quantity, destination port, shipment window, pallet or labeling requirements and COA/MSDS needs. Buyers should also ask whether the offer is based on prompt stock or scheduled production.

Short FAQ

Did Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda rise or fall this week?

The weekly average increased slightly to RMB 639/mt, but the September 3 closing reference fell to RMB 625/mt. The difference reflects firmer prices earlier in the week and softer conditions at the end.

Why did 50% liquid caustic soda fall more sharply?

Concentrated-liquid output recovered after an earlier supply reduction, purchasing momentum slowed and lower-priced warehouse material affected market sentiment.

Did caustic soda flakes fall with liquid caustic soda?

No broad decline was reported. Northwest China 98% flakes remained around RMB 2,210/mt, although actual export offers still depend on specification, packing and logistics.

Can liquid caustic soda prices be used to calculate a flakes offer?

No. Liquid references use different concentration and wet-ton terms. Solid-product export packing, handling, inland transport, documentation and freight must be quoted separately.

What should overseas buyers monitor next?

Monitor plant restarts, producer inventory, alumina purchasing, non-alumina demand and whether new export orders improve.

Procurement Note

Jinan ZZ International Trade Co., Ltd. supports overseas buyers comparing caustic soda flakes and pearls specification, export packing, COA/MSDS and container shipment requirements from China. Buyers can review the linked product pages and send an RFQ with quantity, destination port and shipment window for a current quotation.